02 Summary – our lessons and recommendat­ions He whakarāpopototanga – ā mātau akoranga me ā mātau tūtohutanga

From reviewing Aotearoa New Zealand’s COVID-19 pandemic experience and response, we have identified a wide-ranging set of lessons that we consider will help the country respond better to any future pandemic. We present them in two ways in this report: the lessons we learned from looking back at New Zealand’s COVID-19 pandemic experience and response; and looking forward, the lessons that will ensure New Zealand is better prepared for the future. Our approach looks beyond COVID-19 to a wide range of pandemic scenarios, as the next pandemic could originate from a different pathogen that spreads and affects people quite differently.

The insights from all our ‘lessons learned’ provide the basis for the Inquiry’s recommendations, which detail the practical steps we consider the Government of Aotearoa New Zealand, and its agencies, should now take. They have been developed based on areas of the COVID-19 response that were particularly challenging, had the biggest impact, can be most feasibly tackled by the government – and, importantly, offer the greatest opportunities for better preparedness as we look to the future.

Lessons learned from looking back

The ‘Looking Back’ part of this report reviews and draws lessons from the key areas of the Aotearoa New Zealand’s pandemic response specified in our terms of reference.

Overall, compared to other jurisdictions, the evidence shows that the COVID-19 response in Aotearoa New Zealand was effective at protecting people from the health effects of the virus. The public health response successfully prevented widespread infection until most of the population was vaccinated. The health system was never overwhelmed, and many of the potentially unequal health impacts on disadvantaged or vulnerable populations were minimised or mitigated.

The initial success of the elimination strategy allowed the country to spend less time under strict lockdown conditions than many other parts of the world, meaning daily life and economic activity were broadly able to return to ‘normal’ much earlier. This was coupled with a swift and generous economic and social response which cushioned many people and businesses from the pandemic’s worst impacts – and saw Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy perform well compared to other countries in the initial phases of the pandemic. We highlight examples in the ‘Looking Back’ chapters where we identified aspects of the response working well.

The swift response saw Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy perform well compared to other countries in the initial phases of the pandemic.

However, the response was not perfect and over time some aspects proved challenging, particularly in terms of delivery and adapting as circumstances changed. We also identified unintended consequences that stemmed from certain decisions or approaches that could have benefited from greater flexibility. As was the case overseas, the pandemic (and aspects of the response to it) had negative impacts on Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy, society, individuals and families that were significant, cumulative and unevenly distributed over time.

We assess many of these impacts in detail in the ‘Looking Back’ chapters. For example, we consider and draw lessons learned from the impacts of lockdowns and border restrictions on individuals and groups; missed opportunities to ensure the vaccine rollout reached vulnerable populations as equitably as desirable; and the social and economic consequences of certain mandatory measures, particularly vaccine requirements. We recognise the full extent of the impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic may not be wholly understood for some time. Current and future research will continue to add to our overall understanding of the pandemic and enhance future planning and decision-making.

We also identified unintended consequences that stemmed from certain decisions or approaches that could have benefited from greater flexibility.

Lessons learned for the future

After reflecting on what can be learned from looking back at Aotearoa New Zealand’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we turn to our lessons for the future. We begin by acknowledging the many ways in which COVID-19 has shifted the global context in which the next pandemic will unfold.

• One critical overall observation we have made, and which applies internationally, is that the foundations for future pandemic responses must be put in place ahead of time. We cannot predict the exact nature of the next pandemic, or the economic and social situation in which it might occur, but there are many tools available – scenario planning, ethical and human rights frameworks, cost-effectiveness tools and more – that can assist with planning, proactive management, and making decisions about where to focus resources.
  
  
• We then present six thematic lessons more specific to Aotearoa New Zealand on what we learned for the future. These describe the high-level elements we consider are essential to ensure we are fully prepared for, and respond well to, the next pandemic.
  
  
• Our overarching high-level lesson from COVID-19 is that: successfully managing a pandemic requires a response that looks after all aspects of people’s lives.
  
  
• This means first recognising the various ways people’s lives will be affected by a future pandemic, and then creating a balanced pandemic response that minimises both immediate and long-term harms. Supporting this lesson are five more that highlight the importance of:
  • Make good decisions
  • Build resilience in the health system
  • Build resilience in economic and social systems
  • Work together
  • Build the foundations for future responses

The foundations for a future pandemic response must be put in place ahead of time.

Within each thematic lesson, a range of ‘sub-lessons’ elaborate on how our Inquiry considers Aotearoa New Zealand can develop balanced and effective pandemic responses in the future. For example, decision-makers need to keep sight of the overall and multi-faceted purpose of a pandemic response while being adaptable; and we emphasise the importance of good quality advice and evidence, robust processes, and a firm commitment to responsiveness, clear communication and transparency.

Ahead of the next pandemic, we highlight the importance of strengthening Aotearoa New Zealand’s public health capacity and increasing the resilience of the healthcare system. Strong economic and social systems must also be fostered to support resilience and New Zealand’s ability to absorb shocks like pandemics. We discuss the critical importance of government agencies working together and maintaining relationships with iwi and Māori, communities, businesses, faith groups and non-governmental organisations who, as the COVID-19 response demonstrated, can reach people the government often cannot. Future pandemic responses in New Zealand should also uphold te Tiriti o Waitangi (the Treaty of Waitangi) and we discuss how the government might work in partnership with Māori in the development, design and delivery of the response.

Recommendations

The uncertainty posed by the nature and context surrounding any future pandemic in Aotearoa New Zealand presents challenges, but it does not make us powerless. Our recommendations outline the practical steps that the Government of New Zealand, and its agencies, should take to ensure any future pandemic response is effective and looks after all aspects of people’s lives.

Our recommendations call for action across many areas of government, but all support a common overall objective: ensuring pandemic preparations and any future pandemic responses have a clear purpose and are people-centred. While directed at central government, other communities and organisations throughout New Zealand may also find aspects of our recommendations relevant and useful in their own pandemic planning.

Recommendations are organised in six groups:

1. Strengthen all-of-government coordination and accountability for pandemic preparedness
2. Ensure an all-of-government pandemic plan, response structure and supporting processes are developed and ready for a pandemic response
3. Strengthen the public health measures that may be required in a pandemic
4. Ensure all sectors are prepared for a pandemic and ready to respond
5. Ensure enablers are in place
6. Implement the Inquiry’s recommendations