C.1 Purpose and audience

This appendix is intended for people interested in thinking in more depth about pandemic scenarios – for example, those who might be responsible for working through and then implementing this report’s recommendations on scenario thinking, planning and modelling.

We discuss scenario thinking, anticipatory governance, and using scenario planning and modelling to inform policy response options in Chapter 10 of the main report. Here we focus in more depth on the core aspect of pandemic scenarios, with examples relating to characteristics of potential pandemic agents.

This appendix builds on a growing body of work about the role of scenario planning for future pandemics. We also commend to interested readers a report published in 2023 by Te Niwha: Likely future pandemic agents and scenarios: An epidemiological and public health framework.¹ Discussions about the Te Niwha report helped inform the work of this Inquiry.