13 - Lessons for the future | Covid-19 Lessons Learned

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Introduction | Kupu whakataki

Having reflected on what can be learned from looking back at Aotearoa New Zealand’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we now turn to the future and the lessons we consider should be learned from and acted on before the next pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic was a transformative and disruptive worldwide event. It expanded what the world knows about pathogens, their origins and spread, and how science and data can help us prepare for and combat future pandemics. It graphically demonstrated the extraordinary reach pandemics can have in a highly mobile and connected world. COVID-19touched nearly every aspect of people’s lives, producing social and economic effects of great breadth, severity and duration. It also brought home the challenges of responding well to such an event.

Global observations | Ngā kitenga mai i te Ao Whānui

Summary of lessons for the future | He whakarāpopototanga o ngā akoranga mō ā muri ake

We now turn to the specific lessons Aotearoa New Zealand can learn for the future. These describe the high-level elements we consider are necessary to ensure the country is fully prepared for the next pandemic ahead, and ready to respond in ways that take care of all aspects of people’s lives. Below, we provide a summary of our lessons for the future. These are informed by the global observations identified above and have been developed with reference to the written evidence supplied to our Inquiry by government agencies involved in the response; direct engagements with key stakeholders; analysis of the evidence by our secretariat team; and our public submissions.

Note: In our main report, the ’Lessons for the future’ chapter contains detailed additional information and context on each lesson. It also contains a case study (spotlight) on making complex decisions in a pandemic and an international comparison with South Korea and its state of pandemic preparedness prior to COVID-19.

Lessons for the future and how they fit together | Ngā akoranga mō ā muri ake

Lesson 1

Manage pandemics to look after all aspects of people’s lives
This is the overarching lesson from COVID-19. It means recognising the broad range of impacts that a future pandemic may have on all aspects of people’s lives in Aotearoa New Zealand – and balancing the responses to minimise both immediate and long-term harms. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic: Lesson 1.1 Put people at the centre of any future pandemic response. Lesson 1.2 Consider what it means to ‘look after all aspects of people’s lives’ from multiple angles.

Manage pandemics to look after all aspects of people’s lives

This is the overarching lesson from COVID-19. It means recognising the broad range of impacts that a future pandemic may have on all aspects of people’s lives in Aotearoa New Zealand – and balancing the responses to minimise both immediate and long-term harms. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic:

Lesson 1.1 Put people at the centre of any future pandemic response.
Lesson 1.2 Consider what it means to ‘look after all aspects of people’s lives’ from multiple angles.

Lessons 2 to 6 reflect what it would mean to prepare for and respond to a future pandemic in a way that looks after all aspects of people’s lives.

Lesson 2

Make good decisions
In order to look after people in a pandemic, decision-makers need to keep sight of the overall purpose of the response while being adaptable in how this is achieved. They also need advice and evidence that helps them weigh up different options and strike a balance between different priorities and values. What is needed to ‘look after people’ will change as the pandemic evolves and the balance of benefits and harms of various policy options shift over time. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic: Lesson 2.1 Maintain a focus on looking after all aspects of people’s lives in pandemic preparedness and response. 2.1.1 Consider and plan for multiple time horizons simultaneously. 2.1.2 Make more explicit use of ethical frameworks to balance different rights, values and impacts over time. Lesson 2.2 Follow robust decision-making processes (to the extent possible during a pandemic). 2.2.1 Seek out a range of advice and perspectives. 2.2.2 Make use of times when the situation is stable to look ahead and plan for what might come next. 2.2.3 Anticipate and plan for burnout. Lesson 2.3 Use appropriate tools when developing and considering policy response options. 2.3.1 Identify a wide range of possible policy response options. 2.3.2 Compare the impacts of different policy response options to make good decisions. 2.3.3 Use modelling and scenarios to inform decision-making. Lesson 2.4 Be responsive to concerns, clear about intentions, and transparent about trade-offs. 2.4.1 Engage stakeholders, partners and the public in key decisions, to the extent possible in the circumstances. 2.4.2 Be transparent about how different considerations have been weighed against one another. 2.4.3 Clearly signal in advance where the response is heading, to help people navigate periods of uncertainty and transition.

Make good decisions

In order to look after people in a pandemic, decision-makers need to keep sight of the overall purpose of the response while being adaptable in how this is achieved. They also need advice and evidence that helps them weigh up different options and strike a balance between different priorities and values. What is needed to ‘look after people’ will change as the pandemic evolves and the balance of benefits and harms of various policy options shift over time. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic:

Lesson 2.1 Maintain a focus on looking after all aspects of people’s lives in pandemic preparedness and response.

2.1.1 Consider and plan for multiple time horizons simultaneously.
2.1.2 Make more explicit use of ethical frameworks to balance different rights, values and impacts over time.

Lesson 2.2 Follow robust decision-making processes (to the extent possible during a pandemic).

2.2.1 Seek out a range of advice and perspectives.
2.2.2 Make use of times when the situation is stable to look ahead and plan for what might come next.
2.2.3 Anticipate and plan for burnout.

Lesson 2.3 Use appropriate tools when developing and considering policy response options.

2.3.1 Identify a wide range of possible policy response options.
2.3.2 Compare the impacts of different policy response options to make good decisions.
2.3.3 Use modelling and scenarios to inform decision-making.

Lesson 2.4 Be responsive to concerns, clear about intentions, and transparent about trade-offs.

2.4.1 Engage stakeholders, partners and the public in key decisions, to the extent possible in the circumstances.
2.4.2 Be transparent about how different considerations have been weighed against one another.
2.4.3 Clearly signal in advance where the response is heading, to help people navigate periods of uncertainty and transition.

Lesson 3

Build resilience in the health system
Looking after people’s health is a core part of any pandemic response. Strengthening public health capacity will expand the tools available to reduce the risk of pandemic infection. This can reduce their reliance on more restrictive measures (such as lockdowns). Capacity is also needed in the healthcare system so this can meet the demands of safely caring for those who become infected while also delivering other essential health services. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic: Lesson 3.1 Build public health capacity to increase the range of options available to decision-makers in a pandemic. 3.1.1 Make scaling-up effective testing and contact tracing part of core public health capability. 3.1.2 Plan for a flexible range of quarantine and isolation options. 3.1.3 Be ready to quickly implement infection prevention and control measures. Lesson 3.2 Enhance the health system’s capacity to respond to a pandemic without compromising access to health services. 3.2.1 Build the capability of the healthcare workforce. 3.2.2 Strengthen intelligence, monitoring and coordination of healthcare to enable adaptability. 3.2.3 Improve health system infrastructure. 3.2.4 Strengthen resilience in primary healthcare.

Build resilience in the health system

Looking after people’s health is a core part of any pandemic response. Strengthening public health capacity will expand the tools available to reduce the risk of pandemic infection. This can reduce their reliance on more restrictive measures (such as lockdowns). Capacity is also needed in the healthcare system so this can meet the demands of safely caring for those who become infected while also delivering other essential health services. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic:

Lesson 3.1 Build public health capacity to increase the range of options available to decision-makers in a pandemic.

3.1.1 Make scaling-up effective testing and contact tracing part of core public health capability.
3.1.2 Plan for a flexible range of quarantine and isolation options.
3.1.3 Be ready to quickly implement infection prevention and control measures.

Lesson 3.2 Enhance the health system’s capacity to respond to a pandemic without compromising access to health services.

3.2.1 Build the capability of the healthcare workforce.
3.2.2 Strengthen intelligence, monitoring and coordination of healthcare to enable adaptability.
3.2.3 Improve health system infrastructure.
3.2.4 Strengthen resilience in primary healthcare.

Lesson 4

Build resilience in economic and social systems
Any pandemic response needs to look after the social, economic and cultural aspects of people’s lives. In order to do this, Aotearoa New Zealand’s social and economic systems need to be resilient and have the capacity to ‘step up’ during a crisis. People are the most important resource, but we also need tools and processes for identifying and reaching those who need support during a pandemic. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic: Lesson 4.1 Foster strong economic foundations. 4.1.1 Continue to build strong relationships between economic agencies. 4.1.2 Prepare better for economic shocks. 4.1.3 Strengthen fiscal reserves and maintain fiscal discipline. Lesson 4.2 Use economic and social support measures to keep ‘normal’ life going as much as possible. 4.2.1 Deploy economic and social measures to support key health measures. 4.2.2 Design key tools in advance to save time and resources. 4.2.3 Build on the improvements to social sector contracting and partnership. 4.2.4 Maintain well-functioning labour markets, including by providing financial support to workers. Lesson 4.3 Ensure continuous supply of key goods and services. 4.3.1 Build greater resilience into supply chains. 4.3.2 Maintain food security for a future pandemic. 4.3.3 Maintain access to government and community services throughout a pandemic. 4.3.4 Allow the ‘essential’ category to change over time.

Build resilience in economic and social systems

Any pandemic response needs to look after the social, economic and cultural aspects of people’s lives. In order to do this, Aotearoa New Zealand’s social and economic systems need to be resilient and have the capacity to ‘step up’ during a crisis.
People are the most important resource, but we also need tools and processes for identifying and reaching those who need support during a pandemic. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic:

Lesson 4.1 Foster strong economic foundations.

4.1.1 Continue to build strong relationships between economic agencies.
4.1.2 Prepare better for economic shocks.
4.1.3 Strengthen fiscal reserves and maintain fiscal discipline.

Lesson 4.2 Use economic and social support measures to keep ‘normal’ life going as much as possible.

4.2.1 Deploy economic and social measures to support key health measures.
4.2.2 Design key tools in advance to save time and resources.
4.2.3 Build on the improvements to social sector contracting and partnership.
4.2.4 Maintain well-functioning labour markets, including by providing financial support to workers.

Lesson 4.3 Ensure continuous supply of key goods and services.

4.3.1 Build greater resilience into supply chains.
4.3.2 Maintain food security for a future pandemic.
4.3.3 Maintain access to government and community services throughout a pandemic.
4.3.4 Allow the ‘essential’ category to change over time.

Lesson 5

Work together
Looking after people in a pandemic means all parts of society need to be involved. Communities, businesses, faith groups, NGOs and tangata whenua are able to reach people and do things beyond the scope of government agencies. Building relationships and recognising the value of others’ approaches are important preparation for working together in a pandemic. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic: Lesson 5.1 Work in partnership with Māori. Lesson 5.2 Work in partnership with communities. 5.2.1 Work with the community to deliver necessary supports. 5.2.2 Make use of both locally-delivered initiatives and standardised national approaches. 5.2.3 Ensure public information is accessible and use trusted networks to help deliver key messages. Lesson 5.3 Work closely with the business sector.

Work together

Looking after people in a pandemic means all parts of society need to be involved. Communities, businesses, faith groups, NGOs and tangata whenua are able to reach people and do things beyond the scope of government agencies. Building relationships and recognising the value of others’ approaches are important preparation for working together in a pandemic. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic:

Lesson 5.1 Work in partnership with Māori.

Lesson 5.2 Work in partnership with communities.

5.2.1 Work with the community to deliver necessary supports.
5.2.2 Make use of both locally-delivered initiatives and standardised national approaches.
5.2.3 Ensure public information is accessible and use trusted networks to help deliver key messages.

Lesson 5.3 Work closely with the business sector.

Lesson 6

Build the foundations
Looking after people means thinking about what would be needed in a future pandemic response and acting now to ensure this is in place ahead of time. It’s not possible to predict the exact nature of the next pandemic or the economic and social situation in which it might occur, but there are tools (such as scenario planning) that can give a sense of the range of challenges a future government might need to respond to. These should inform what’s prioritised in the work of pandemic preparation and where Aotearoa New Zealand should focus its resources – including the tools and systems needed to look after all aspects of people’s lives. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic: Lesson 6.1 Anticipate and manage the risks posed by a future pandemic (alongside other risks). 6.1.1 Establish an effective national risk management system. 6.1.2 Ensure central oversight of pandemic preparation across the whole of government. 6.1.3 Base planning on robust pandemic scenario planning and modelling. Lesson 6.2 Have key components of an effective national response in place and ready to be activated. 6.2.1 Establish an effective all-of-government national response mechanism. 6.2.2 Ensure strong cross-agency leadership. 6.2.3 Prepare fit-for-purpose legislation. 6.2.4 Build strong international connections.

Build the foundations

Looking after people means thinking about what would be needed in a future pandemic response and acting now to ensure this is in place ahead of time. It’s not possible to predict the exact nature of the next pandemic or the economic and social situation in which it might occur, but there are tools (such as scenario planning) that can give a sense of the range of challenges a future government might need to respond to. These should inform what’s prioritised in the work of pandemic preparation and where Aotearoa New Zealand should focus its resources – including the tools and systems needed to look after all aspects of people’s lives. In preparing for and responding to the next pandemic:

Lesson 6.1 Anticipate and manage the risks posed by a future pandemic (alongside other risks).

6.1.1 Establish an effective national risk management system.
6.1.2 Ensure central oversight of pandemic preparation across the whole of government.
6.1.3 Base planning on robust pandemic scenario planning and modelling.

Lesson 6.2 Have key components of an effective national response in place and ready to be activated.

6.2.1 Establish an effective all-of-government national response mechanism.
6.2.2 Ensure strong cross-agency leadership.
6.2.3 Prepare fit-for-purpose legislation.
6.2.4 Build strong international connections.

13 - Lessons for the future Ngā akoranga mō ā muri ake