But still, the pandemic hit Aotearoa New Zealand hard, and it was harder on some people than others. For more than 4,000 New Zealanders who diedbetween 2020 and the end of October 2024, COVID-19 either caused or contributed to their deaths.2 Many others became seriously ill and some remain so today, due to long COVID. A disproportionate share of the health burden fell on Māori and Pacific peoples.3 And of course the pandemic’s impacts extended well beyond health. Some people lost jobs or businesses (although government intervention mitigated these losses), while others in essential roles had to keep working when they didn’t feel safe to do so. Rights most of us take for granted were curtailed. Families were separated from relatives overseas, and some New Zealanders were unable to get home. Ongoing disruptions in the education sector saw some young people drop out. Women gave birth without the support of friends or family. People died alone or with only a few loved ones present. In 2024, the country is still reckoning with the array of economic and social challenges which the pandemic either caused or worsened.
Whatever satisfaction we draw from the fact that Aotearoa New Zealand emerged from the pandemic in considerably better shape than many other countries, we cannot look away from the undeniable harm New Zealand sustained. Contentious public health measures like vaccine mandates wore away at what had initially been a united wall of public support for the pandemic response; along with the rising tide of misinformation and disinformation, this created social fissures that have not entirely been repaired. Certain groups, many already disadvantaged or vulnerable well before the pandemic, were left worse off when it subsided. As a country that has always professed its belief in equity and fairness – values also enshrined in te Tiriti o Waitangi | the Treaty of Waitangi – we need to make sure the response to the next pandemic does not lead to inequitable and damaging outcomes.
How can we do better next time? The importance of answering that question is, in essence, the reason for our Inquiry. Our terms of reference require us to review Aotearoa New Zealand’s response to COVID-19 and identify lessons that will ensure we are better prepared for another pandemic. In fact, we think many of our findings and lessons can be usefully applied to other threats that could also disrupt our country in this century of heightened risk – whether these hazards are familiar or unprecedented, natural or human in origin.
How can we do better next time? The importance of answering that question is, in essence, the reason for our Inquiry
We cannot know when or where the next pandemic will break out, nor what form it will take. But we can be sure of some things. There will be another pandemic and it will not be the same as COVID-19. It might well be triggered by another respiratory virus, perhaps even another coronavirus, although an influenza virus is more likely. But in all likelihood, its transmission characteristics and virulence (the rate of fatal cases) will be different and therefore warrant different policy response options. If we have prepared well, those options will be better than last time. Our society will be different too, not least because of the scars which COVID-19 left behind. Our personal and collective resilience, our social cohesiveness, our willingness to comply with restrictions and our tolerance of risk – all severely tested by COVID-19 – may be greater or less than last time.
This uncertainty presents challenges, but it does not make us powerless. As this report sets out, there is much Aotearoa New Zealand can do – and needs to do – to get ready for the next pandemic. We can start by developing a range of pandemic scenarios, working out the probability of them occurring and identifying their likely effects – not only on public health but on all aspects of our wellbeing. From this basis, we can decide where to prioritise investments, then plan and practise accordingly. We must have (or have access to) a suite of the very best epidemiological, economic and social tools and resources: treatments, vaccines, technologies, economic and social supports, data and knowledge. Of course, no country can afford the investment needed to maintain all possible preparedness and policy responses in an optimal state. But, by quantifying the likelihood of future pandemic scenarios, and knowing the best way to prepare and respond to them should they occur, Aotearoa New Zealand can make rational and cost-effective decisions about investment and preparedness. We can put ourselves in a better position still if we also lay the groundwork now for the agile response strategies and delivery mechanisms we may need in future – and underpin them with even better decision-making arrangements and structures across government than we had in COVID-19.
It is not just government that must take up these challenges. When the response to COVID-19 was at its most effective, it was due not only to the hard work of public servants and politicians but also to businesses and industries, iwi and Māori, Pacific communities and other ethnic communities, social service providers, charities, volunteers and many more. They knew the needs of their sectors or communities, they knew how to reach them, and they could often do what central government could not. The response to the next pandemic, and preparations for it, must therefore harness their strengths.
COVID-19 showed us the capacity of New Zealanders, individually and collectively, to rise to a challenge that proved bigger and more complex than was initially anticipated. As we travelled the country hearing from people about their experiences, we were repeatedly struck by the extraordinary effort, commitment and selflessness shown throughout the pandemic. Across the private and public sectors alike, people worked huge hours, often from home in less than ideal and sometimes stressful conditions. They did the best they could, making difficult decisions on the basis of imperfect information. They found ways to keep things going in a rapidly-changing and sometimes frightening environment.
We would like to acknowledge and thank all those who met with us, made a public submission, or provided written evidence to the Inquiry
Whether they contributed on the national stage or away from the public eye, these people made Aotearoa New Zealand’s pandemic response happen. It has been one of the biggest privileges of our working lives to meet them and hear their reflections.
We would like to acknowledge and thank all those who met with us, made a public submission, or provided written evidence to the Inquiry. We greatly appreciate the time and effort that went into preparing and providing this material to us.
Aotearoa New Zealand has much to be proud of when it looks back on its response to COVID-19. But, as nearly everyone we engaged with over the course of the Inquiry agreed, there is significant room for improvement. Not only will the next pandemic be different, but our response must be different too – and better. This report aims to make a practical contribution to that goal. We have looked back, honestly and scrupulously – not to assign blame but to enable us to move forward, as prepared as we can be, for what will be a challenging future.
Nā mātou noa, nā
Professor Tony Blakely, Chair
John Whitehead CNZM KStJ, Commissioner
Grant Illingworth KC,Commissioner
